From CassandraFish.comBy Cassie Fish,
Though bulls are scarce, a few bullish signals are evident. Feb LC continues to gain ground on all other cattle contracts making a new high this morning in Feb/Apr spread at 275 points as Feb blows through the weekly high from 2 weeks ago, $154.95. Market action thus far today is almost impressive, grinding higher in a manner not witnessed in what feels like a long time.
Cash cattle have yet to trade this week in volume. Yesterday’s daily kill was bigger than it’s been in a month of Wednesday’s giving a little hope that this week’s kill will be at least as big as last week’s 576k and supporting ideas that packers are willing to own cattle in the upper 150s and cash could end up steady or even higher for the week after a bleak outlook just days ago.
Lean Beef Trimmings Make History—Again
Lean beef trimmings, known as 90s, quietly and incredibly made a new all-time high yesterday at $305.53 in the face of continued heavy imports of lean grinding beef from Australia, up 55% YTD as calculated by *MP Agrilytics this week. It takes little effort to wonder how high this market would be without imported grinding beef supplying the U.S. burger machine. Strength in 90s could also provide some underlying support to certain round and chuck cuts, both primals have lost significant value in the last couple of weeks.
In fact, the round and the chuck are the current weak links of the carcass, both -0.32% and -5.02% year over year, according to MP Agrilytics analysis compared to the loin and rib, +15.21% and +11.86% year over year. The flank, short rib and brisket are holding YOY gains too.
Beef Export Shipments Down
USDA’s FAS reported beef shipments for the week ended Jan 22 down 13% from a year ago, disappointing in all countries but Japan where shipments were up 21%, solid so far in 2015 at +19% YTD. The rumbles of import/export issues in Hong Kong last week could very well be evident in this week’s numbers with shipments to Hong Kong -25% from year earlier. Again thanks to MP Agrilytics for corralling these numbers.
Speaking of exports, The Beef is excited to sponsor its first webinar this afternoon discussing this very topic and the outlook for 2015. Click here for more info.
*MP Agrilytics of Collierville, TN is a proprietary provider of comprehensive livestock and meats data, analytics and research.
The Beef is published by Consolidated Beef Producers…for more info click here.
Disclaimer: The Beef, CBP nor Cassie Fish shall not be liable for decisions or actions taken based on the data/information/opinions.
A Handbook for Ranch Managers. In keeping with the “holistic” idea that the land, the livestock, the people and the money should be viewed as a single integrated whole: Part I deals with the management of the natural resources. Part II covers livestock production and Part III deals with the people and the money. Not only would this book make an excellent basic text for a university program in Ranch Management, no professional ranch manager’s reference bookshelf should be without it. It is a comprehensive reference manual for managing the working ranch. The information in the appendices and extensive bibliography alone is worth the price of the book.
You might also be interested in the supplement to this Handbook: Planned Grazing: A Study Guide and Reference Manual.