El Nino is here, but may not influence spring precipitation

Planned Grazing: A Study Guide and Reference ManualFor what it is worth which is not much for those of you doing planned grazing. For those of you who aren’t, drought is of very little concern to us. Our planning technique and management method insures we will NEVER run out of forage.  — jtl, 419

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration declares El Nino advisory, but it’s weak nature may limit impact on spring weather

from the Beef Producer

El Niño is here. Barely.

A Handbook for Ranch ManagersThe National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center’s Emily Becker said atmospheric and oceanic conditions just barely allowed forecasters to declare an El Niño advisory this week after months of “almost” conditions were recorded.

Environmental & Natural Resource Economics: The Austrian ViewIn a NOAA blog Thursday, Becker said the conditions recorded are “extremely weak El Niño conditions,” though a Climate Prediction Center consensus forecast calls for an approximately 50-60% chance that El Niño conditions will continue through the spring.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration declares El Niño advisory, but its weak nature may limit impact on spring weather
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration declares El Niño advisory, but it’s weak nature may limit impact on spring weather

The Betrayed: On Warriors, Cowboys and Other Misfits    Combat Shooter's HandbookA NOAA map pairing of historical March-May El Niño precipitation patterns shows how El Niño has affected U.S. precipitation during the 10 years of the modern instrument record during which El Niño was present in the spring: 1953, 1957, 1958, 1966, 1969, 1983, 1987, 1992, 1998, and 2010.

El Niño is here, but may not influence spring precipitation

The Essence of Liberty: Volume I: Liberty and History: The Rise and Fall of the Noble Experiment with Constitutionally Limited Government (Liberty and ... Limited Government) (Volume 1)  The Essence of Liberty: Volume II: The Economics of Liberty (Volume 2) The Essence of Liberty: Volume III: A Universal Philosophy of Political Economy (Liberty: A Universal Political Ethic) (Volume 3) According to NOAA, the map on the left shows March-April-May precipitation during those 10 years compared to the long-term average, with browns indicating drier–than-average springs, and greens and blues indicating wetter-than-average springs.

The map on the right shows how often that wet or dry precipitation pattern occurred. “Cool” colors indicate the particular wet or dry signal occurred less than 50% of the time, while “warm” colors indicate frequencies above 50%, meaning five or more years out of 10.

NOAA said maps show that spring precipitation in some parts of the U.S. has a reliable connection to El Niño; In the mountainous regions of the Pacific Northwest, for example, a moderate dry signal (dark browns) occurred between 60-70% (orange) and 80-90% (red) of the El Niño springs on record.

The Great Lakes region and the Ohio Valley also saw moderately dry springs from 60-70% to 80-90% of the time, NOAA said.

A strong wet signal (dark green and blues) shows up in coastal Northern California, northeast Texas, central Florida, and the Northeast coast from Massachusetts to New Jersey.

The reliability of that signal varies considerably from one place to another, however. The most reliable wet spring signal appears in central Florida, where it occurred in up to nine years out of 10 (red areas), NOAA said.

In most of California and Texas, on the other hand, El Niño brought wet springs less than 50% of the time (light blue and cyan).

As far as using the past to infer what a given region might expect from the current El Niño, NOAA said the maps show the precipitation patterns during all El Niños of the modern record, regardless of how strong or weak they are.

“The current El Niño is weak, and it’s generally the case that the weaker the El Niño, the more likely it is that other weather variability will drown out its influence,” NOAA said.

Source: NOAA


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Planned Grazing: A Study Guide and Reference ManualPlanned Grazing: A Study Guide and Reference Manual. This is the ideal squeal to A Handbook for Ranch Managers.  Although the ecological principles remain the same, what was originally known as “The Savory Grazing Method” now answers to a multitude of different names: ranching for profit, holistic management, managed grazing, mob grazing, management intensive grazing, etc. Land & Livestock International, Inc. uses “Restoration Grazing” under its “Managing the Ranch as a Business” program.” No mater what you call it, this summary and synopsis will guide you step by step through the process and teach you how to use it as it was originally intended. No more excuses for failing to complete your grazing plans.


About Land & Livestock Interntional, Inc.

Land and Livestock International, Inc. is a leading agribusiness management firm providing a complete line of services to the range livestock industry. We believe that private property is the foundation of America. Private property and free markets go hand in hand—without property there is no freedom. We also believe that free markets, not government intervention, hold the key to natural resource conservation and environmental preservation. No government bureaucrat can (or will) understand and treat the land with as much respect as its owner. The bureaucrat simply does not have the same motives as does the owner of a capital interest in the property. Our specialty is the working livestock ranch simply because there are so many very good reasons for owning such a property. We provide educational, management and consulting services with a focus on ecologically and financially sustainable land management that will enhance natural processes (water and mineral cycles, energy flow and community dynamics) while enhancing profits and steadily building wealth.
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