Rally Time

By Cassie Fish, CassandraFish.com via The Beef Read

A Handbook for Ranch ManagersAfter a big wash-out prior to 1:00 p.m. yesterday in CME cattle futures, the market began creeping up in the afternoon, portending the +100 point higher opening today. Leaving a big tail on the charts and turning up technical indicators, a short-term low appears to be in with the possibility of a more significant low in the making. A close tomorrow above Tuesday’s high would certainly go a long way to cement the low and build some confidence that the recent careening slide is over.

Big Futures Trade

Planned Grazing: A Study Guide and Reference Manual There was big volume and a big open interest build on yesterday’s flush, up over 6k contracts but it’s unclear who the players were. Was there desperate hedging by cattle feeders and their bankers, long hedging by packers or adding to shorts by managed funds? All of the above? The weekly CFTC commitment of traders report for yesterday’s action won’t be revealed until a week from tomorrow leaving room for nothing but speculation until then.

    Quiet Elsewhere

Environmental & Natural Resource Economics: The Austrian ViewActivity in the country has been extremely quiet compared to the financial markets with a very few fringe Corn Belt cattle trading lower than a week ago at $226-228. After last week’s large negotiated trade volume, packers are not expected to be aggressive. Still, packer margins are excellent and fed cattle costs in the mid-$140s are attractive as they are well below where the market has averaged for the last 20 months.

September Cleanup?

Combat Shooter's Handbook Reconnaissance Marine MCI 03.32f: Marine Corps Institute The Betrayed: On Warriors, Cowboys and Other MisfitsOne of the keys to how long the packer can keep a lid on fed cattle prices this fall is when the north, The Essence of Liberty: Volume I: Liberty and History: The Rise and Fall of the Noble Experiment with Constitutionally Limited Government (Liberty and ... Limited Government) (Volume 1)  The Essence of Liberty: Volume II: The Economics of Liberty (Volume 2) The Essence of Liberty: Volume III: A Universal Philosophy of Political Economy (Liberty: A Universal Political Ethic) (Volume 3)specifically central and eastern Nebraska and Iowa, get through their peak numbers and regain front-end currentness. Perhaps if packers keep putting south-bound wheels under cattle and up slaughter schedules somewhat in the south that northern cleanup will occur quickly. As those in this business know, cattle weights don’t top seasonally until Nov 1. There have been reports of more packers discounting big cattle this week. So getting ahead of marketings this time of year can propose a challenge. And packers have exhibited a discipline on keeping kills reined in since May.

Discounts Intact

Soon-to-be-lead month Oct LC is almost $5 discount to last week’s cash trade even after rallying $3 off of yesterday’s low, which saw the market remarkably trade under $140, a level not reached in the most active futures month since May 2014 or in cash fed cattle prices since early January 2014. It would certainly seem that futures will lag behind the cash market for the foreseeable, until or unless an unexpected significant development alters the perceived landscape.

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Disclaimer:  The Beef, CBP nor Cassie Fish shall not be liable for decisions or actions taken based on the data/information/opinions.


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Planned Grazing: A Study Guide and Reference ManualPlanned Grazing: A Study Guide and Reference Manual. This is the ideal squeal to A Handbook for Ranch Managers.  Although the ecological principles remain the same, what was originally known as “The Savory Grazing Method” now answers to a multitude of different names: ranching for profit, holistic management, managed grazing, mob grazing, management intensive grazing, etc. Land & Livestock International, Inc. uses “Restoration Grazing” under its “Managing the Ranch as a Business” program.” No mater what you call it, this summary and synopsis will guide you step by step through the process and teach you how to use it as it was originally intended. No more excuses for failing to complete your grazing plans.

About Land & Livestock Interntional, Inc.

Land and Livestock International, Inc. is a leading agribusiness management firm providing a complete line of services to the range livestock industry. We believe that private property is the foundation of America. Private property and free markets go hand in hand—without property there is no freedom. We also believe that free markets, not government intervention, hold the key to natural resource conservation and environmental preservation. No government bureaucrat can (or will) understand and treat the land with as much respect as its owner. The bureaucrat simply does not have the same motives as does the owner of a capital interest in the property. Our specialty is the working livestock ranch simply because there are so many very good reasons for owning such a property. We provide educational, management and consulting services with a focus on ecologically and financially sustainable land management that will enhance natural processes (water and mineral cycles, energy flow and community dynamics) while enhancing profits and steadily building wealth.
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