My view: Global warming fact vs. fiction

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By Bill Pekny For the Deseret News

FILE: The real overwhelming fact is that more than 31,000 American scientists (including me) believe that global warming is not a problem.

I agree with the AP article (“Tempers flare up over climate change as temperature rises,” Aug. 16) that these days when it comes to science, “nothing beats climate change for divisiveness.” I also agree that “climate change is more about tribalism, or who we identify with politically and socially . … Liberals (climate activists/alarmists) believe in global warming, conservatives (climate skeptics) typically don’t.” But my agreement with Mr. Borenstein stops here.

Mr. Borenstein shows his true colors when he says: “Overwhelmingly, scientists who study the issue (global warming) say it is man-made and a real problem.” The real overwhelming fact is that more than 31,000 American scientists (including me) believe that global warming is not a problem.

Yes, man-made fossil fuel combustion is adding Carbon Dioxide (CO2) to our atmosphere. And yes, CO2 is adding to the warming of our lower atmosphere via the Greenhouse Effect. But cooling feedback mechanisms generally offset any greenhouse warming. So, any warming we do experience is slight, and then only in a benign and helpful manner.

Here’s one reason why — photosynthesis — the chemical reaction of CO2 + H2O (water) + plant life + sunlight, to yield glucose (sugar) + O2 (oxygen). So, as we burn natural gas, oil and coal in power plants and cars, the CO2 enters the air as a combustion by-product. It’s then taken in by plant life and converted to oxygen in the air we breathe and glucose in the food we eat. Best of all, our crop yields are growing and worldwide hunger is decreasing. CO2 is “overwhelmingly” a good gas, not a pollutant.

Next, I must also respond to Mr. Borenstein’s hypothesis that basic physics, chemistry, and computer models prove global warming is a coming catastrophe.

Our climate is not simple physics and chemistry, rather a highly complex combination/interaction/superposition of solar physics, orbital mechanics, chemistry, meteorology, geology and oceanography that, at best, we still only partially understand.

When I compare the “computer model” results referred to by Mr. Borenstein with actual global surface temperature (thermometer) measurements over the period 1880 through the present, the model and measurements are strikingly different. The computer model generally follows measurement (although not well) until about 1998. From that point to today, and on out to their forecast endpoint in 2020, the model predicts a “catastrophic warming” increase.

But the reality is that average global temperature anomaly measurements are flat/constant/unchanged from 1998 until today. The model predicts today’s temperature anomaly should be 60 percent higher than was actually measured by thermometers today. If the model were correct, that would be worrisome. But it is not correct and the reason is that the scientific community doesn’t understand the physics well enough yet to predict climate reliably. Worse still, some model developers ignore known cause and effect relationships. One glaring example is the myth that CO2 levels drive temperature. The truth is that temperature drives CO2 levels.

So, beware of climate models and their propensity toward garbage-in, garbage-out. There are no real measurements to support the hypothesis that widespread human use of coal, oil and natural gas, and associated increases in atmospheric CO2, are causing or will cause dangerous upward changes in global temperatures. The earth has been much warmer during the past 3,000 years without catastrophic effect.

comments on this story Also, be wary of consensus thinking. It may play a role in politics and mobs, but not in the scientific method. As Albert Einstein once said about the book “One Hundred Authors Against Einstein”: “Why one hundred? If I were wrong, one would be enough.”

Finally, remember the scientific skeptic, Galileo. Contrary to the popular opinion of the time (i.e., that the sun revolves around the earth), he said, no, the earth orbits around the sun. They threw him in jail for his belief, but only for a while. Being quantitative and skeptical is the lifeblood of real science.

William Pekny lives in Midway, Utah. He is a recently retired atmospheric physicist, having worked 48 years in a variety of applied engineering and scientific assignments with the U. S. armed forces and the aerospace industry.

Land and Livestock International, Inc. is in a position to assist the buyer in purchasing ranches like these anywhere in the Western United States and Northern Mexico. Pre – purchase services include help with due diligence, estimates of carrying capacity and potential for improvement, cash flow projections, etc. Post purchase services include everything from part time consulting to complete turn-key management.

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Dripping Springs
Mule Creek, Grant County, New Mexico

The Dripping Springs Ranch is a highly improved working cattle ranch in a very desirable part of southwest New Mexico. Access to the Ranch from State Route 78 is excellent, and it is an easy drive to either Silver City, N. or Safford, Az. 232 deeded acres, 13,000 USFS acres, 150 AU. $2,500,000

Walking L Ranch
Wickenburg, Yavapai County

The Walking L Ranch’s 52+ square miles adjoin Wickenburg from the Hassayamapa River into the Wickenburg Mountains. The ranch originally consisted of the 10X Ranch on the south end and the Rincon Ranch on the north end.  The old Rincon Dude Ranch was added to the ranch’s Headquarters by the current owner. The ranch’s land tenure consists of deeded land, State and BLM Grazing Leases.  Topography is rolling to steep with elevation’s ranging from 2,100’ along the river to over 2,700’ on San Domingo Peak.  The ranch borders US 60 on the south side of Wickenburg.  The ranch’s deeded land is in seven non-contiguous parcels throughout the ranch.  The headquarters consists of 110.88 deeded acres on Rincon Road and the Hassayampa River with approximately 30 acres irrigated.  Another headquarters for the 10X is on the state lease. $5,000,000

Dos S Inholding
Fountain Hills, Maricopa County

The Dos S is a 22.78 acre private inholding surrounded by Tonto National Forest on Sycamore Creek.  It is located just off the Beeline Highway behind a locked gate 20 miles from the Shea Boulevard & Highway 87 intersection at Fountain Hills.  Payson is 40 miles to the north. $1,025,100


About Land & Livestock Interntional, Inc.

Land and Livestock International, Inc. is a leading agribusiness management firm providing a complete line of services to the range livestock industry. We believe that private property is the foundation of America. Private property and free markets go hand in hand—without property there is no freedom. We also believe that free markets, not government intervention, hold the key to natural resource conservation and environmental preservation. No government bureaucrat can (or will) understand and treat the land with as much respect as its owner. The bureaucrat simply does not have the same motives as does the owner of a capital interest in the property. Our specialty is the working livestock ranch simply because there are so many very good reasons for owning such a property. We provide educational, management and consulting services with a focus on ecologically and financially sustainable land management that will enhance natural processes (water and mineral cycles, energy flow and community dynamics) while enhancing profits and steadily building wealth.
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